Thursday, 10 October 2013
Saturday, 14 September 2013
Violence and Match-fixing
Match-fixing players commit to footballing treason for many different reasons. In the media, match-fixing players are (often) rightly villified but there are times when some simply do not have a choice.
According to FIFPro's 'Black Book of Eastern Europe' (2012), violence within football is rife:
This stat suggests that over a third of players who fix matches have a case that they are not responsible for the fixing. They were forced to through physical violence and presumably threats to them or their family.
Violence and match-fixing go hand in hand not least because of the persons who are responsible. Criminal gangs such as the ultras in Eastern Europe are heavily involved in the running of their clubs. To show you how much influence they have, take the case of Milos Radisavljevic Kimi (hi mate if you're reading!)
According to FIFPro's 'Black Book of Eastern Europe' (2012), violence within football is rife:
These figures are staggering. If a player must withstand violent acts from fans, club management or by the coach, is it possible they are more prone to fixing a match? Firstly, they might view their job as miserable and need the extra money to put up with the violence. Secondly, they now have a chance to take revenge on their persecutors! Lastly, they might not have a choice.
This stat suggests that over a third of players who fix matches have a case that they are not responsible for the fixing. They were forced to through physical violence and presumably threats to them or their family.
Violence and match-fixing go hand in hand not least because of the persons who are responsible. Criminal gangs such as the ultras in Eastern Europe are heavily involved in the running of their clubs. To show you how much influence they have, take the case of Milos Radisavljevic Kimi (hi mate if you're reading!)
Milos hit the headlines recently when he invaded a Champions League match between Partizan and Ludogorets and stripped the captain's armband of Marko Scepovic after a poor performance. Incredibly FK Partizan and Milos wrote it off as a friendly exchange.
‘I have not taken off the ribbon aggressively. We are friends in the
first place. I go to the pitch after every match for choreography
reasons. I do not understand what the problem is, because my act was not
aggressive. I have not taken off his ribbon, he actually gave it to
me’, Radisavljevic says.
Skepovic has now signed for Olympiacos.
What if Milos 'asked' you as a footballer to fix a match? It could be difficult to say no.
Monday, 2 September 2013
Margin - helping the inexperienced
This is simply a blog post explaining to any new gamblers the extent of the margin imposed by the bookmakers. Most believe that roulette is a mug's game because there is no skill involved. Whilst this may be true (try telling the gamblers in macau with their number sheets that), football margin is often overlooked.
The house's edge in single zero roulette is 2.7%. Therefore, every time you place a bet - red/black, Even/Odd or number bet, the house enjoys a small edge. That is not to say you can't go on improbable runs and win large amounts; it simply becomes more difficult over time. A casino in Monte Carlo recorded 36 blacks in a row according to rumour!
In football, the average margin on the win market is 7%. On Betfair, it often 0% but this is before commission. However, as this picture will show, if you were to have every betting account in the marketplace, then the bookmakers' collective edge is actually negative.
This means, if you were to bet on stan James' 3.4 for Mexico, Paddy Power's 3.25 for the draw and BetVictor's 2.55 for Italy, you would a) make an extremely tiny percentage in arbitrage and b) you could bet any of the selections knowing that the bookmaker holds no edge on that particular bet (unless one of the selections is wrong value-wise).
This means, if you were to bet on stan James' 3.4 for Mexico, Paddy Power's 3.25 for the draw and BetVictor's 2.55 for Italy, you would a) make an extremely tiny percentage in arbitrage and b) you could bet any of the selections knowing that the bookmaker holds no edge on that particular bet (unless one of the selections is wrong value-wise).
Bookmakers want your action. But of course, they want your action at a bad price. Continue to bet these 'top-prices' and you will be restricted (as spoken about in a previous blog post).
So if the bookmaking industry has no collective edge due to a 0% margin how do they enjoy substantial profits?
1) Degenerates
2) Lazyness.
The first category are responsible for the bulk of bookmakers' profits. They must bet. If Team A are going to win, what does it matter that the price is 2.5, 2.3 or even 2.1. These customers are regularly taken advantage of, whatever their PR teams would have you believe.
Lazyness does have an impact on the gamblers' profits. Although there is very little apparent difference between £10 to win £24 and £10 to £26, over time, this does make a considerable difference.
Business is business and therefore bookmakers are entitled to charge a margin. However, what is unacceptable is the exploitation of those needing or wanting to gamble on specific events. For instance, the Grand National has a bookmaker margin of up to 50%! This means that the price you receive should invariably be double. They get away with this because their brands are strong and the casual punter (lazy) does not care about price.
I would be happy to create a gamblers' union demanding more free bets and better prices with strike action. However, those in categories 1) and 2) are hardly going to join...are they :)
I would be happy to create a gamblers' union demanding more free bets and better prices with strike action. However, those in categories 1) and 2) are hardly going to join...are they :)
Wednesday, 7 August 2013
Legalising Sports Betting + a few quirky ideas
I was once told that 10 times as many people are killed in the production, protection, transportation and selling of drugs than the taking of them. A good argument for legalising many drugs can certainly be made. But what about the betting industry?
The debate topic of legalising sports betting has risen in popularity due to the match-fixing scandals (known as spot-fixing) in the Indian Premier League. The argument goes that if betting is legalised, particularly in India, it would solve the problem of match-fixing. It is known that the illegal bookmakers are responsible for the match-fixing that takes place. When they know what will happen in an over, they can bet themselves or lay bets on outcomes they know will not happen.
Those calling for the legalisation of betting need to look at other sports/countries and see if match-fixing has occurred in forever regulated markets or newly-legalised markets. Football can be bet on at many legal establishments and you don't need me to tell you there have been match-fixing cases at these bookmakers. Even the supposed 'illegal bookmakers' in Asia are only illegal due to specific countries' laws. In England, betting with them is perfectly fine. Tennis is mostly only bet on at legal bookmakers. Snooker is rarely even offered by 'illegal' bookmakers. There have been numerous horseracing, darts and rugby scandals with the majority of the betting on Betfair (who are known to handover client information unlike the Asian bookmakers). Just because the market is legal or technically legal, it doesn't eradicate the problem of match-fixing.
In USA online gambling is essentially banned and match-fixing is relatively rare. However, this is due to the nature of American Sports whose athletes are college educated and the wage structure is such that match-fixing is impractical. Every case is different.
In the majority of European countries, betting is fully legalised and match-fixing is rife. There is no correlation between the legalisation of gambling within a country and the cleanliness of their domestic sport. This is because, bookmaking, particularly online bookmaking is global. A man with an internet connection in Zimbabwe can bet $1 million on Skype. If every single underground bookmaker in India was arrested, or ignored for the regular market (unlikely), or became legal, match-fixing would still occur.
Legalising betting would do little to stop match-fixing. Greed is a core human characteristic with it dominating some. Sport and the manipulation of sport is where greed can be satisfied, through match-fixing.
There is only one way to prevent match-fixing in Cricket (and though even less practical) in football too...think outside the box.
Make it impossible for Indian bookmakers to trade the matches. Whatever ways this can be done, must be explored. This could include:
In short, legalising betting will have very little impact. Either accept that sport will forever be corrupted or tackle the players and the bookmakers at the same time. People will always want to gamble, legally or illegally.
The debate topic of legalising sports betting has risen in popularity due to the match-fixing scandals (known as spot-fixing) in the Indian Premier League. The argument goes that if betting is legalised, particularly in India, it would solve the problem of match-fixing. It is known that the illegal bookmakers are responsible for the match-fixing that takes place. When they know what will happen in an over, they can bet themselves or lay bets on outcomes they know will not happen.
Those calling for the legalisation of betting need to look at other sports/countries and see if match-fixing has occurred in forever regulated markets or newly-legalised markets. Football can be bet on at many legal establishments and you don't need me to tell you there have been match-fixing cases at these bookmakers. Even the supposed 'illegal bookmakers' in Asia are only illegal due to specific countries' laws. In England, betting with them is perfectly fine. Tennis is mostly only bet on at legal bookmakers. Snooker is rarely even offered by 'illegal' bookmakers. There have been numerous horseracing, darts and rugby scandals with the majority of the betting on Betfair (who are known to handover client information unlike the Asian bookmakers). Just because the market is legal or technically legal, it doesn't eradicate the problem of match-fixing.
In USA online gambling is essentially banned and match-fixing is relatively rare. However, this is due to the nature of American Sports whose athletes are college educated and the wage structure is such that match-fixing is impractical. Every case is different.
In the majority of European countries, betting is fully legalised and match-fixing is rife. There is no correlation between the legalisation of gambling within a country and the cleanliness of their domestic sport. This is because, bookmaking, particularly online bookmaking is global. A man with an internet connection in Zimbabwe can bet $1 million on Skype. If every single underground bookmaker in India was arrested, or ignored for the regular market (unlikely), or became legal, match-fixing would still occur.
Legalising betting would do little to stop match-fixing. Greed is a core human characteristic with it dominating some. Sport and the manipulation of sport is where greed can be satisfied, through match-fixing.
There is only one way to prevent match-fixing in Cricket (and though even less practical) in football too...think outside the box.
Make it impossible for Indian bookmakers to trade the matches. Whatever ways this can be done, must be explored. This could include:
- Random, unannounced TV Blackouts. This gives others an edge over bookmakers which they do not like. Also suspensions drive customers away. The legitimate fans suffer but it's a preventative measure.
- Game abandoned if match-fixing is strongly suspected to have occurred. The fans suffer. But not only does this impede the bookmakers (as they will have to void bets), the players are going to think twice.
Reward and Punishment
- The government passes a law that match-fixing is punishable by up to 20-years in prison. Lie detectors (after betting patterns are monitored) and proof are used to bring cases to court. Most bookmakers aren't too great at cricket. They need professionals in their pocket. The most extreme penalties will prevent this.
- Extremely large rewards for players foiling match-fixing attempts. This has to be implemented on a case by case basis but the premise is that paid information is better than no information. Pay more than the fixers.
In short, legalising betting will have very little impact. Either accept that sport will forever be corrupted or tackle the players and the bookmakers at the same time. People will always want to gamble, legally or illegally.
Tuesday, 23 July 2013
A note on some bookmakers
Here are some ways in which I claim certain bookmakers rip off gamblers. I sent an article to a few newspapers but no response. Either my writing is poor (possible) or the bookmakers who advertise with the newspaper wouldn't be best pleased. It is certainly of interest for any first-time gamblers.
Betting is a business and whilst I agree profitability is the name of the game, these methods are suspect.
No names mentioned.
They restrict/ban sometimes even the slightest of winning punters. Everyone knows casinos restrict and even throw out people who have an edge but the high street bookmakers constantly
stop anyone who shows they are capable of making a profit. If the
message got out that no one was ever supposed to win at high street bookmakers they would have to offer more competitive odds. Most of the online bookmakers
track bets of new start up accounts and if there is even the
possibility that the gambler is profitable he is restricted or banned
from betting. In short, whilst the advertising suggests profits can be made, in reality this is not possible.
Bookmakers restrict
winning gamblers but copy their preferences and adjust their odds
accordingly. They pay low wages to ‘traders’ when compared to the city
and manage their books by copying winning bettors. For instance a smart
winning gambler will try to bet £100 on a match - they will limit him to
£10 and then change their price accordingly. This is so that they can
pay poor quality traders (on some sports/leagues) and manage their
positions easily.
They offer extremely poor value for
money at times when the gambler cannot choose elsewhere. For instance,
the bets odds are available online, but the shops offer worse odds;
finally if there is a bookmaker at a football
match they offer the worst available odds as bettors have no where else
to go once they are there. Examples can be given of the true margin they
enjoy. In addition, almost always the price in the racing post differs
from the shop price even though theoretically it should be identical. A
gambler walks into a shop to be on Manchester United before he goes to
watch the game..the price is 8% less than he imagined but he can't go
anywhere else..if cigarettes where x% higher there is enough competition
out there to choose another brand..of course there is enough
competition out there but sometimes punters don't get to hear about it
and the ones that do are restricted when they win.
They confiscate bets if they
think the match is a fix but continue to take money on the outcome at
poor prices..if the bets win they don’t pay out but if they do not, they
keep the money as the bet was a loser. This is extremely out of order
and is a bone of contention within certain circles. The most recent
example of this was after a fixed match ..Bookmakers took
bets until they couldn't take any more and they have not paid out on
the result. Some of the money is legitimate that saw the end result as a
likely result, others were arbing or just recreational gamblers. They
should either not offer these matches or remove instantly if they think
is suspicious. Further still they should void the bets until kick-off.
They claim certain bets are
‘palpable error’ meaning they don’t have to pay when the rules are very
sketchy concerning this. There is a well-known tennis
example which is fairly complex but is one of many.
Bookmakers sometimes
do not incur any risk at all..They offer poor odds to the punter and
then ‘hedge’ their risk by placing the same bet at higher odds on
Betfair. In a sense they are simply converting currency by gaining 10p
in the pound by bettors and making 6p in the pound off the hedge. This
is fairly well-known within the industry but the average punter is
simply giving away his money at these shops.
Bonuses given away online have certain
conditions that are considerably less generous than advertised. While
this is not remotely illegal and is common practice, it is still not
right.
Betting is a business and whilst I agree profitability is the name of the game, these methods are suspect.
No names mentioned.
Thursday, 30 May 2013
Match-Fixers and Lance Armstrong
'Defrauding the public' - I have heard this phrase on countless
occasions, pertaining to match-fixing in football and indeed in the Lance
Armstrong case.
The argument goes that those fixing a
football match are a) defrauding the public who are paying to see the match; b)
defrauding the betting public who think they are betting on a legitimate match;
and c) defrauding the bookmakers.
a) is a non-runner for jail-time. No one
could convince me that the match-fixers from Singapore should go to prison
because someone paid £2.20 for a ticket in a domestic Eastern European game or
£10 for an international friendly, which was fixed.
b) is a little trickier. Yes the match-fixers
have cost some bettors their money but have they stolen from them? Have they
defrauded them? For example, a customer bets £20 on Manchester City (no, I am
not accusing them, although their mid-season performances were suspect!) at
odds of 5/6. If the game is fixed for them to lose, technically, the
match-fixers have cost our bettor £20. These odds should be 3/1, 4/1 or even
1000-1 if the fix is definitely in. And yet, by that same token, those
unwittingly who have bet on Man City's opponents stand to win money they didn't
expect. In any event, when a person bets £20 at odds of 5/6, his £20 is already
subject to the margin. The real thieves are the bookmakers! But seriously, I
don't think the match-fixers can be held accountable for even larger losses by
bettors.
c) is the most legitimate argument for
jail-time. Match-fixers are using 'insider information' to profit from betting.
They are defrauding bookmakers. Again, there are some credible arguments
against this. Firstly, Dan Tan and the financiers are not betting with William
Hill or Ladbrokes who would need a sit-down if someone asked for a
million pound bet. No, the match-fixers are betting with Asian operators who
are taking the bets illegally. By that I mean, the money is arriving from countries
where people are not allowed to bet outside the monopolised lottery. So who are
the match-fixers defrauding? - illegal bookmakers. This is further complicated
by the fact that occasionally the bookmaker is aware of the match-fixing as in the famous case of Samvo. On the balance of things, based off betting alone and
'defrauding the public' and my wholesale lack of law knowledge, I say
match-fixers are not liable for jail-time.
However, it is what is connected with the
match-fixing which is the real crime. Coercion, money laundering, terrorism,
drugs, prostitution, illegal doping, murder and theft are all crimes in my book.
So find them, make a case and throw away the key. They 'deserve' to be locked
up for ruining football - but on football crimes alone, it's not going to
happen. If jail-time was handed out on crimes against football, Stoke and Tony
Pulis would never see the light of day!
Moving on to Lance Armstrong.
I've heard many calling out Lance
Armstrong for fraud and people have even called for his imprisonment.
Again he has defrauded the paying public. But Livestrong (helped by Armstrong) have
raised more than $500 million for Cancer Research. I don't care if it was guilt
money or he was even forced to do it. The fact is, if cancer is cured one day,
Lance Armstrong will have contributed in some way. I think that's a bit bigger
than taking some pills to ride a bike quicker. He was a person who was able to 'defraud' cycling fans and sponsors into putting their hand in their pocket. They wouldn't have done it for Basso or the Schleks. I'm not trying to dismiss
cycling but it is well known how drug-ridden the game was/is. It just so
happens Lance Armstrong's PED game was better than most.
This blog is not a defence of Dan Tan or
Lance Armstrong. I just think people should calm down before they scream 'off
with their heads'. It's the people outside of football - the real criminals
who are responsible as well as the players who get dragged into the mess. You
always have a choice as a footballer on that first occasion. Others, such as
women taken from their homes and used as prostitutes, do not. But a footballer
has a club, teammates, and a manager who he can go to. Those in Spain have no
excuse. But I don't think it makes you a terrible person - just a greedy one.
Football is just a game. It's the betting, offered by bookmakers FOR PROFIT
(not the enhancement of the game) which creates the opportunity.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Off-Chest-Confessions-match-fixing-ebook/dp/B00BW0NFZE/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1363689840&sr=1-1
All the best,
Striker
Monday, 27 May 2013
Who? What? When? And the dangers of gambling
A few people have asked me who the central characters in Off The Chest are. Here is a brief description although the clues are located within the book.
The author:
This player played for his country (not England - the details were changed) over 30 times. The scam involving the yellow cards and being booked on purpose is real and was executed somewhere around 2005. the bookmakers involved are alleged to have allowed the bets due to wanting continued action. Loved a bet more than life itself.
Simmo: Centre back who did play for England. He is described as a leader in any dressing room and has control over the players. A friendly guy amongst close friends, he is not the nicest of people to those who don't know him. He has cheated on his wife over 100 times. Likes a bet but is more interested in other things - namely getting his end away.
Wheezy: This player in real life is actually white. Known gambler and went on to do worse things than detailed in Off The Chest. An impressionable chap, he was never a star but loved living the high life, which gambling brings, on occasion. This guy was deceptively fast but is sometimes extremely ineffective as seen by his wayward assist rate.
Hollow: This player actually moved abroad but this wasn't detailed in Off The chest. He is rumoured to be getting up to no good. it appears that once he got the taste for it, there was no turning back. Hollow is probably the most skilled match-fixer of the bunch. He controlled the fix in the famous match but you'd never know. He put a few players under pressure and gave away one corner that could have been prevented but never looked to be playing badly. a real professional.
Darren: I can't say too much about this guy. A bookmaker (the name was changed in Off The Chest). He took bets from footballers regularly. The stories he knows could fill five books but he's not talking.
Cedric: For safety reasons, I am not saying any more. A crazy man but it is clear he is not the ring leader as he initially made out.
The author now wishes to educate on the dangers of gambling within footballing circles. Only recently Andros Townsend has been punished for betting. There is talk of a gambling addiction and even some rumours of match-fixing. I don't know about that but I can say, as a footballer, once you place your first bet, it's a downward spiral. Betting is greed - wanting more - either money, or excitement. As a footballer, you have both already in spades. Therefore, the decision to gamble extortionate amounts of money stems from the fact that you are not happy with what you have got. This malady is not helped by gambling. It simply drags you further down.
I hope other footballers read this as it might save one career.
The author:
This player played for his country (not England - the details were changed) over 30 times. The scam involving the yellow cards and being booked on purpose is real and was executed somewhere around 2005. the bookmakers involved are alleged to have allowed the bets due to wanting continued action. Loved a bet more than life itself.
Simmo: Centre back who did play for England. He is described as a leader in any dressing room and has control over the players. A friendly guy amongst close friends, he is not the nicest of people to those who don't know him. He has cheated on his wife over 100 times. Likes a bet but is more interested in other things - namely getting his end away.
Wheezy: This player in real life is actually white. Known gambler and went on to do worse things than detailed in Off The Chest. An impressionable chap, he was never a star but loved living the high life, which gambling brings, on occasion. This guy was deceptively fast but is sometimes extremely ineffective as seen by his wayward assist rate.
Hollow: This player actually moved abroad but this wasn't detailed in Off The chest. He is rumoured to be getting up to no good. it appears that once he got the taste for it, there was no turning back. Hollow is probably the most skilled match-fixer of the bunch. He controlled the fix in the famous match but you'd never know. He put a few players under pressure and gave away one corner that could have been prevented but never looked to be playing badly. a real professional.
Darren: I can't say too much about this guy. A bookmaker (the name was changed in Off The Chest). He took bets from footballers regularly. The stories he knows could fill five books but he's not talking.
Cedric: For safety reasons, I am not saying any more. A crazy man but it is clear he is not the ring leader as he initially made out.
The author now wishes to educate on the dangers of gambling within footballing circles. Only recently Andros Townsend has been punished for betting. There is talk of a gambling addiction and even some rumours of match-fixing. I don't know about that but I can say, as a footballer, once you place your first bet, it's a downward spiral. Betting is greed - wanting more - either money, or excitement. As a footballer, you have both already in spades. Therefore, the decision to gamble extortionate amounts of money stems from the fact that you are not happy with what you have got. This malady is not helped by gambling. It simply drags you further down.
I hope other footballers read this as it might save one career.
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